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Huascar Ynoa was having himself quite the evening on Tuesday. After being pressed into service due to the Braves, ahem, struggles in the rotation, Ynoa looked really good through four innings as he had given up just two hits and no runs while striking out five batters.
Unfortunately, as we have seen basically all season long, the Braves rotation is just simply not allowed to have nice things for some reason in 2020.
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After the fourth inning, Darren O’Day was cranked up in the Braves bullpen and Ynoa was seen being tended to by the Braves’ training staff. At the time, it looked like his back was bothering him and it looks like to play things safe, the Braves brought in O’Day.
We will update this story as more details become available.
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Huascar Ynoa is probably the most underrated prospect in the system right now. He is a guy who has yet to tap into his potential and thus doesn’t post flashy numbers. But he figures to have a major-league future as one of the best arm talents the Atlanta Braves have.
Ynoa was originally a signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2014 by the Minnesota Twins, and the Braves swung him from them in the Jaime Garcia trade in the summer of 2017. Ynoa has had a relatively quick trip up the ladder, and although the numbers don’t necessarily justify it, the general feeling is that the stuff is ahead of the numbers and we’re now hoping for a breakout stage of his career.
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Ynoa looked to be in neutral early in his professional career, as all three of his first seasons were spent in Rookie leagues and his ERA went up each of those seasons. He made progress though and began to show his ability to miss bats. In 2018 the Braves placed him in Rome to begin the season. Ynoa really took off in his opportunity in Rome, and while his 3.62 ERA wasn’t the level we’ve seen from the best of the Braves prospects, he still performed well and increased his strikeout rate significantly. Ynoa was now striking out more than a batter an inning and his walk rate had dipped earning him a short trip to High-A Florida. Ynoa got hit harder there and had an 8.03 ERA, but his peripherals improved and quite frankly he had an abysmal team around him and his defense didn’t help him a bit. In his 24 innings in Florida he had a 2.95 FIP, but a dreadful 50.5% rate of runners left on base and a .438 BABIP.
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Ynoa was then a somewhat surprising add to the 40-man roster after the 2018 season. But after seeing the progress he had made and the arm talent he has, it wasn’t far-fetched to assume someone would have taken a chance on him as he was eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Now that he was burning option years and taking up a roster spot the Braves were more eager to push him — and Ynoa responded with a mixed season. Ynoa was back in High-A to start the season but after he struck out 31.4% of batters in three starts the Braves saw he was ready to take the next step. Atlanta asked Ynoa to come out of the bullpen for the first time in his career in Mississippi, and he gave them some things to be excited about with the best walk rate of his career and a still impressive 24% K rate. He did give up quite a few home runs and had a 5.27 ERA over 13 2⁄3 innings. His home-runs-per-fly-ball was well above league average and he had a 4.10 FIP and 2.85 xFIP, so perhaps some bad luck was in play.
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The Braves decided after six relief appearances that they wanted Ynoa in Triple-A.
For as quick as he was moved through the system I was impressed by what Ynoa did in Gwinnett last season. The Braves moved him back into a starting role down the stretch and he pretty much did what he has throughout his career. The numbers aren’t spectacular as he had a 5.33 ERA and 5.52 FIP, but he held his own and didn’t really see any major regression. He continued to strike out batters around that 24% mark and while his walks went back up to his normal levels, he didn’t see a major jump in that regard. Ynoa allowed a lot of home runs in Triple-A (but then again who didn’t?) and his overall profile from last year seemed to indicate he had gained positive momentum going into 2020. Ynoa got two games in Atlanta, one in June in which he threw two scoreless innings with two strikeouts and no walks, and then one in July during which he allowed six runs in one inning.
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Ynoa started his career as a skinny but projectable 16-year-old, but he filled out his 6’3 frame and can straight gas it now. He averaged 97.6 mph on his fastball during his two appearances in Atlanta in 2019, which would have ranked 15th in the major leagues if he had enough pitches to qualify (numbers from Baseball Savant). His slider is an above-average pitch when he is on, though it’s a bit more of a sweeping slider thus doesn’t quite get the same swing-and-miss rates as pitches with more vertical movement.
After this things begin to fall apart for Ynoa. His changeup is a pure show pitch for him right now, and unless something drastic changes that will almost certainly force him to the bullpen sooner rather than later. He doesn’t have the command to make up for it, though he keeps the ball in the zone enough that he doesn’t consistently get himself in trouble as long as he can rein in his home run rates. Ynoa is a very good middle relief prospect with the potential to be a setup type in the major leagues.
I expect the Braves will see multiple outings from Ynoa in the 2020 season as he’s already made his major-league debut. I doubt we’ll see significant playing time barring an outbreak within the team or him finally having a true breakout campaign and forcing the team’s hand. Ynoa does have starting potential and if he can get the work in on his changeup and make strides in his command he has a future there.
But the consensus is that he’s a bullpen guy the Braves are starting until they have no other choice. He has a good chance to make an impact in that role long term and is a name to watch and follow this season when he does get his chances, although he’s not ready to make that leap to Atlanta and take away jobs from the currently established relief corp.